Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 18.851726 21.485899 24.322600 27.600485 31.279659 35.277578 39.946635
2025-01-12 14.657996 18.167740 22.238681 27.293466 33.384446 40.469400 49.316101
2025-01-19 11.908803 15.595730 20.084432 25.922847 33.284508 42.224178 53.864549
2025-01-26 10.674916 14.661807 19.722410 26.571171 35.545391 46.845445 62.084151
2025-02-02 9.757950 13.968104 19.508257 27.266013 37.770489 51.410155 70.355771
2025-02-09 8.707774 12.958454 18.743839 27.106076 38.778104 54.368344 76.617365
2025-02-16 7.763200 11.981113 17.905643 26.725115 39.385589 56.741322 82.131054
2025-02-23 7.109859 11.347817 17.475555 26.846992 40.648042 60.018447 88.996433
2025-03-02 6.595254 10.863828 17.205503 27.150957 42.148542 63.661296 96.513271
2025-03-09 6.082793 10.329797 16.806421 27.211330 43.260882 66.763958 103.362262
2025-03-16 5.551519 9.713670 16.225108 26.934415 43.820014 69.046685 109.073615
2025-03-23 5.192498 9.342315 15.990488 27.165012 45.144452 72.503409 116.667127
2025-03-30 4.984607 9.214216 16.147768 28.048860 47.573358 77.810646 127.429113
2025-04-06 4.568864 8.692881 15.620584 27.778645 48.138292 80.257707 133.880519
2025-04-13 3.996770 7.840843 14.467455 26.372524 46.742721 79.506767 135.197407
2025-04-20 3.830922 7.707629 14.534095 27.035600 48.805762 84.377069 145.726837
2025-04-27 3.684257 7.595682 14.625935 27.740066 50.964981 89.488135 156.857888
2025-05-04 3.420037 7.236144 14.245678 27.578075 51.611887 92.110765 163.972721
2025-05-11 3.148339 6.837056 13.761646 27.190860 51.830100 94.004264 169.923225
2025-05-18 2.967673 6.602785 13.565925 27.314740 52.954022 97.476054 178.685850
2025-05-25 2.823989 6.430887 13.474781 27.623545 54.420071 101.591266 188.714500
2025-06-01 2.661705 6.205606 13.262776 27.684888 55.426445 104.933022 197.517038
2025-06-08 2.474017 5.909178 12.887951 27.403546 55.770116 107.099888 204.315229